K. Boulter vs K. Volynets — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #72 vs #91 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 4/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›More rested: 15d vs opponent's 11d
!Coming off 4 losses in a row
The model makes K. Boulter the favorite with a 51% win probability, against K. Volynets's 49% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.96; the offered odds are around @2.02 (a 50% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #72 vs #91 (better ranked); 4/10 in recent matches; 1-0 in favor; 15d vs opponent's 11d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 51%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 49 out of every 100 times Volynets wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 4 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.