Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #161 vs #147
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Model 85% vs market 69% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
!Returning from a long layoff (30d) — possible rustiness
•Avanesyan — no matches on Hard in the last 90 days (11 on other surfaces) · last Hard match: 2025-02-09
•Garcia — no matches on Hard in the last 90 days (4 on other surfaces) · no Hard match in the indexed history