Pick track record
Every published prediction, with its result — two separate series. No hiding the misses.
Tiers & EV — how to read the table
| Grade | What it means |
|---|---|
| ELITE | EV ≥ +3%, probability ≥ 60% and odds ≥ 1.40 — confidence, a real edge and a price that pays, all aligned. The strongest grade. |
| TIGHT | A reliable read that falls short of the Elite bar: odds too short, no clear edge over the market, or probability under 60%. |
| SPECULATIVE | The model strongly disagrees with the market (EV ≥ +15%) or the match is near a coin flip (probability < 50%). High variance. |
| EV | Expected value against the market: probability × odds − 1. An EV of +5% means that if our probability is right, the price pays 5% more than fair. Positive EV is a long-run edge, never a guaranteed win. |
| Date | Pick | Tier | Prob. | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | Daniil Medvedev vs Francisco Cerundolo | TIGHT | 70% | @1.42 | +0.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Oct 3 | Jaume Munar vs Kyrian Jacquet | ELITE | 64% | @1.68 | +8.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Oct 2 | Luciano Darderi vs Kyrian Jacquet | ELITE | 64% | @1.78 | +14.5% | ✕ Miss |
| Oct 1 | R. Jodar vs D. Vallejo | TIGHT | 75% | @1.20 | −9.9% | ✕ Miss |
| Sep 30 | Novak Djokovic vs Nuno Borges | ELITE | 75% | @1.45 | +8.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 29 | Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone | TIGHT | 79% | @1.22 | −3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 28 | S. Tsitsipas vs R. Hijikata | TIGHT | 61% | @1.30 | −20.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 25 | F. Marozsan vs T. Daniel | TIGHT | 68% | @1.44 | −2.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 24 | F. Marozsan vs A. Bolt | TIGHT | 66% | @1.28 | −15.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 23 | A. Eala vs T. Prozorova | TIGHT | 82% | @1.24 | +1.1% | ✕ Miss |
| Date | Pick | Tier | Prob. | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | L. Noskova + J. Lehecka vs V. Golubic + D. Vallejo | TIGHT | 60% | @1.56 | −6.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Oct 3 | B. Bencic + Arthur Fils vs A. Zakharova + Valentin Vacherot | TIGHT | 59% | @1.56 | −7.5% | ✕ Miss |
| Oct 2 | K. Muchova + S. Bejlek vs K. Boulter + M. Inglis | TIGHT | 61% | @1.55 | −4.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Oct 1 | N. Djokovic + Alex de Minaur vs Y. Bu + Quentin Halys | ELITE | 65% | @1.72 | +11.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 30 | Carlos Alcaraz + Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen + Kei Nishikori | ELITE | 74% | @1.51 | +11.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Sep 29 | Flavio Cobolli + Alexander Zverev vs Roman Safiullin + Cameron Norrie | SPECULATIVE | 66% | @2.03 | +33.3% | ✕ Miss |
| Sep 28 | L. Fruhvirtova + A. Fils vs A. Lazaro Garcia + K. Majchrzak | SPECULATIVE | 68% | @1.96 | +33.5% | ✕ Miss |
| Sep 25 | M. Andreeva + B. Van De Zandschulp vs L. Fernandez + N. Basilashvili | SPECULATIVE | 60% | @1.94 | +16.3% | ✕ Miss |
| Sep 8 | J. Pegula + Carlos Alcaraz vs E. Navarro + Ben Shelton | TIGHT | 61% | @1.60 | −2.1% | ✕ Miss |
| Sep 7 | Learner Tien + Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov + Luciano Darderi | ELITE | 62% | @1.80 | +11.0% | ✕ Miss |
Live record, settled automatically match by match. For the full methodology, calibration, and backtests, visit Transparency. +18 · play responsibly.