Pick track record
Every published prediction, with its result — two separate series. No hiding the misses.
Tiers & EV — how to read the table
| Grade | What it means |
|---|---|
| ELITE | EV ≥ +3%, probability ≥ 60% and odds ≥ 1.40 — confidence, a real edge and a price that pays, all aligned. The strongest grade. |
| TIGHT | A reliable read that falls short of the Elite bar: odds too short, no clear edge over the market, or probability under 60%. |
| SPECULATIVE | The model strongly disagrees with the market (EV ≥ +15%) or the match is near a coin flip (probability < 50%). High variance. |
| EV | Expected value against the market: probability × odds − 1. An EV of +5% means that if our probability is right, the price pays 5% more than fair. Positive EV is a long-run edge, never a guaranteed win. |
| Date | Pick | Tier | Prob. | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | T. Fritz vs B. Nakashima | ELITE | 68% | @1.56 | +5.7% | ✕ Miss |
| Aug 19 | A. Zverev vs T. Paul | ELITE | 74% | @1.42 | +5.3% | ✕ Miss |
| Aug 18 | J. Fonseca vs C. O'Connell | TIGHT | 87% | @1.21 | +5.1% | Void · Walkover |
| Aug 17 | J. Mensik vs R. Hijikata | TIGHT | 74% | @1.29 | −4.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 16 | C. Ruud vs C. O'Connell | TIGHT | 87% | @1.32 | +14.3% | Void · Walkover |
| Aug 15 | A. Zverev vs C. Norrie | TIGHT | 78% | @1.25 | −3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 14 | N. Borges vs T. Kokkinakis | ELITE | 72% | @1.52 | +9.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 13 | B. Shelton vs B. Nakashima | TIGHT | 64% | @1.45 | −6.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 12 | Dalibor Svrcina vs Mark Lajal | TIGHT | 58% | @1.86 | +7.1% | ✕ Miss |
| Aug 11 | L. van Assche vs G. Heide | TIGHT | 69% | @1.40 | −3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | Pick | Tier | Prob. | Odds | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18 | L. Musetti vs M. Zheng | ELITE | 76% | @1.51 | +14.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 17 | D. Parry vs L. Boisson | SPECULATIVE | 70% | @2.02 | +40.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 16 | I. Buse vs A. Walton | SPECULATIVE | 64% | @2.49 | +59.3% | ✕ Miss |
| Aug 15 | F. Cobolli vs M. Kecmanovic | SPECULATIVE | 71% | @1.72 | +22.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 14 | L. Sonego vs J. Shang | SPECULATIVE | 64% | @2.50 | +60.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 13 | O. Oliynykova vs E. Kalieva | SPECULATIVE | 68% | @3.00 | +102.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 12 | L. Tagger vs R. Montgomery | SPECULATIVE | 72% | @1.67 | +19.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 11 | A. Vukic vs Dar. Blanch | SPECULATIVE | 78% | @1.65 | +28.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 9 | Ben Shelton vs Joao Fonseca | SPECULATIVE | 67% | @1.84 | +22.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Aug 7 | Matteo Arnaldi vs Tallon Griekspoor | SPECULATIVE | 65% | @2.38 | +55.4% | ✕ Miss |
Live record, settled automatically match by match. For the full methodology, calibration, and backtests, visit Transparency. +18 · play responsibly.