A. Fils vs P. Kotov — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #10 vs #187 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 64% career on the surface
›Recent form: 9/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 5 matches in the last 2 weeks
›More rested: 5d vs opponent's 1d
The model makes A. Fils the favorite with a 90% win probability, against P. Kotov's 10% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.11; the offered odds are around @1.09 (a 92% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #10 vs #187 (better ranked); 1-0 in favor; 64% career on the surface; 9/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 90%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 10 out of every 100 times Kotov wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.