A. Davidovich Fokina vs J. Brooksby — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #26 vs #102 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-1 even
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 5 matches in the last 2 weeks
›More rested: 8d vs opponent's 1d
The model makes A. Davidovich Fokina the favorite with a 69% win probability, against J. Brooksby's 31% — a solid favorite, though Brooksby keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.45; the offered odds are around @1.44 (a 69% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #26 vs #102 (better ranked); 1-1 even; 7/10 in recent matches; 5 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 69%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 31 out of every 100 times Brooksby wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.