A. Mannarino vs N. Basilashvili — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #83 vs #124 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-1 even
›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks
›More rested: 8d vs opponent's 1d
The model makes A. Mannarino the favorite with a 53% win probability, against N. Basilashvili's 47% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.90; the offered odds are around @1.90 (a 53% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #83 vs #124 (better ranked); 1-1 even; 3/10 in recent matches; 4 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 53%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 47 out of every 100 times Basilashvili wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.