J. Mensik vs F. Cerundolo — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #14 vs #22 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 0-2 against
›Solid on Hard: 70% career on the surface
›Model 60% vs market 68% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 5/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
!Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-2)
The model makes J. Mensik the favorite with a 60% win probability, against F. Cerundolo's 40% — a solid favorite, though Cerundolo keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.68; the offered odds are around @1.47 (a 68% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #14 vs #22 (better ranked); 0-2 against; 70% career on the surface; model 60% vs market 68% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 60%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 40 out of every 100 times Cerundolo wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Unfavorable head-to-head record (0-2). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.