D. Shapovalov vs A. Tabilo — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #46 vs #31
›Model 52% vs market 61% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 2 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 5 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes D. Shapovalov the favorite with a 52% win probability, against A. Tabilo's 48% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.92; the offered odds are around @1.64 (a 61% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #46 vs #31; model 52% vs market 61% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 7/10 in recent matches; 2 wins in a row.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 52%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 48 out of every 100 times Tabilo wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.