Arthur Fils vs Valentin Vacherot — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Surface feeds the model — surface specialization is one of its factors.
›Ranking: #9 vs #18 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 64% career on the surface
›Model 72% vs market 79% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 9/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 4 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes Arthur Fils the favorite with a 72% win probability, against Valentin Vacherot's 28% — a solid favorite, though Vacherot keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.39; the offered odds are around @1.27 (a 79% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #9 vs #18 (better ranked); 1-0 in favor; 64% career on the surface; model 72% vs market 79% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 72%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 28 out of every 100 times Vacherot wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.