ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-10-02

S. Gima vs J. Opitz — prediction

M25 Slobozia (Romania)

✓ Correct

GIMAWIN PROBABILITYOPITZ

63%

Elo prob.

@1.43

odds · 70% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Gima⏱Rest 1d vs 3d🎾Serve 56%📈Form 7/10 · 3✓

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1611 vs 1521 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 379 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.59

fair odds

−10.3%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes S. Gima the favorite with a 63% win probability, against J. Opitz's 37% — a solid favorite, though Opitz keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.59; the offered odds are around @1.43 (a 70% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1611 vs 1521 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 379 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 37 out of every 100 times Opitz wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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