A. Potapova vs S. Kraus — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #25 vs #95 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 25d vs opponent's 2d
!🩹 Noticia (HIGH): A. Potapova retired mid-match (Retired) at Beijing.
!Returning from a long layoff (25d) — possible rustiness
The model makes A. Potapova the favorite with a 74% win probability, against S. Kraus's 26% — a solid favorite, though Kraus keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.36; the offered odds are around @1.32 (a 76% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #25 vs #95 (better ranked); 6/10 in recent matches; 25d vs opponent's 2d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 74%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 26 out of every 100 times Kraus wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: 🩹 Noticia (HIGH): A. Potapova retired mid-match (Retired) at Beijing.; Returning from a long layoff (25d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.