A. Li vs A. Krueger — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #30 vs #73 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 28d vs opponent's 1d
!Returning from a long layoff (28d) — possible rustiness
The model makes A. Li the favorite with a 56% win probability, against A. Krueger's 44% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.77; the offered odds are around @1.78 (a 56% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #30 vs #73 (better ranked); 6/10 in recent matches; 28d vs opponent's 1d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 56%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 44 out of every 100 times Krueger wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (28d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.