MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-10-01
● HARD

K. Volynets vs R. Montgomery — prediction

Beijing
VOLYNETSWIN PROBABILITYMONTGOMERY
54%
model prob.
@1.73
odds · 58% impl.
⏱Rest 5d vs 2d◐Hard 33%🎾Serve 59%📈Form 7/10
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard

Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.

Temperature◇
21°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇
15%

Very dry air: the ball travels faster.

Wind◇
6 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

OUR MODEL'S REASONING

›Ranking: #74 vs #171 (better ranked)

›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches

›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks

Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.86
fair odds
−7.1%
expected value
BREAKDOWN · MODEL ANALYSIS

The model makes K. Volynets the favorite with a 54% win probability, against R. Montgomery's 46% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.86; the offered odds are around @1.73 (a 58% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #74 vs #171 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 3 matches in the last 2 weeks.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 54%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 46 out of every 100 times Montgomery wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →