C. Ruud vs L. Darderi — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #21 vs #19
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 3 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
!The opponent is ranked higher (#19)
The model makes C. Ruud the favorite with a 64% win probability, against L. Darderi's 36% — a solid favorite, though Darderi keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.56; the offered odds are around @1.46 (a 68% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #21 vs #19; 1-0 in favor; 6/10 in recent matches; 3 wins in a row.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 64%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 36 out of every 100 times Darderi wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: The opponent is ranked higher (#19). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.