Z. Sonmez vs M. Inglis — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #58 vs #140 (better ranked)
›Model 54% vs market 68% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 14d vs opponent's 1d
!Coming off 3 losses in a row
The model makes Z. Sonmez the favorite with a 54% win probability, against M. Inglis's 46% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.85; the offered odds are around @1.47 (a 68% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #58 vs #140 (better ranked); model 54% vs market 68% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 3/10 in recent matches; 14d vs opponent's 1d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 54%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 46 out of every 100 times Inglis wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 3 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.