A. Krueger vs S. Kenin — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very dry air: the ball travels faster.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #73 vs #107 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-2 against
!Unfavorable head-to-head record (1-2)
The model makes A. Krueger the favorite with a 60% win probability, against S. Kenin's 40% — a solid favorite, though Kenin keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.68; the offered odds are around @1.57 (a 64% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #73 vs #107 (better ranked); 1-2 against.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 60%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 40 out of every 100 times Kenin wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Unfavorable head-to-head record (1-2). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.