M. Krumich vs I. Lopez Morillo — prediction
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Context we publish for you: these conditions do NOT move the model probability.
›Tour Elo: 1741 vs 1575 — favorite by rating
›Challenger tier · 349 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
The model makes M. Krumich the favorite with a 72% win probability, against I. Lopez Morillo's 28% — a solid favorite, though Morillo keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.39; the offered odds are around @1.31 (a 76% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: 1741 vs 1575 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 349 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.
Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 28 out of every 100 times Morillo wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.