A. Guerrieri vs A. Holmgren — prediction
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Some wind: makes baseline control harder.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Tour Elo: 1880 vs 1744 — favorite by rating
›Challenger tier · 290 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
The model makes A. Guerrieri the favorite with a 69% win probability, against A. Holmgren's 31% — a solid favorite, though Holmgren keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.46; the offered odds are around @1.72 (a 58% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: 1880 vs 1744 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 290 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.
Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 31 out of every 100 times Holmgren wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.