A. Rublev vs K. Jacquet — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #25 vs #107 (better ranked)
›Solid on Hard: 62% career on the surface
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 3 wins in a row
The model makes A. Rublev the favorite with a 73% win probability, against K. Jacquet's 27% — a solid favorite, though Jacquet keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.36; the offered odds are around @1.28 (a 78% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #25 vs #107 (better ranked); 62% career on the surface; 6/10 in recent matches; 3 wins in a row.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 73%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 27 out of every 100 times Jacquet wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.