E. Coulibaly vs C. Langmo — prediction

Porto

✗ Missed

COULIBALYWIN PROBABILITYLANGMO

70%

Elo prob.

@1.43

odds · 70% impl.

⏱Rest 6d vs 7d🎾Serve 59%📈Form 6/10 · 2✗

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Temperature◇

21°C

Mild: neutral conditions.

Humidity◇

58%

Humid air: the ball loses some speed.

Wind◇

7 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1734 vs 1588 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 325 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.43

fair odds

−0.1%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes E. Coulibaly the favorite with a 70% win probability, against C. Langmo's 30% — a solid favorite, though Langmo keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.43; the offered odds are around @1.43 (a 70% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1734 vs 1588 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 325 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Langmo wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of E. Coulibaly vs C. Langmo — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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