Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-27
● HARD
A. Rybakov vs M. Forbes — prediction
Columbus
✓ Correct
RYBAKOVWIN PROBABILITYFORBES
56%
Elo prob.
@1.56
odds · 64% impl.
🎾Serve 67%📈Form 5/10
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
20°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
59%
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Wind◇
15 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
›Tour Elo: 1613 vs 1572 — favorite by rating
›Challenger tier · 294 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
WATCH FOR
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.