J. Duckworth vs L. Sonego — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Moderate altitude: the ball flies a little more than at sea level.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #65 vs #86 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-2 against
›Model 55% vs market 47% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
!Unfavorable head-to-head record (1-2)
The model makes J. Duckworth the favorite with a 55% win probability, against L. Sonego's 45% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.82; the offered odds are around @2.13 (a 47% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #65 vs #86 (better ranked); 1-2 against; model 55% vs market 47% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds; 7/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 55%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 45 out of every 100 times Sonego wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Unfavorable head-to-head record (1-2). This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.