B. Tomic vs R. Te — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #182 vs #839 (better ranked)
›Model 64% vs market 86% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 6 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes B. Tomic the favorite with a 64% win probability, against R. Te's 36% — a solid favorite, though Te keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.56; the offered odds are around @1.16 (a 86% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #182 vs #839 (better ranked); model 64% vs market 86% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 6/10 in recent matches; 6 matches in the last 2 weeks.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 64%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 36 out of every 100 times Te wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.