Y. Yuan vs D. Back — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #134 vs #272 (better ranked)
›Hard specialist: performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface)
›Model 69% vs market 82% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 4/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 24d vs opponent's 12d
!Coming off 4 losses in a row
!Returning from a long layoff (24d) — possible rustiness
The model makes Y. Yuan the favorite with a 69% win probability, against D. Back's 31% — a solid favorite, though Back keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.45; the offered odds are around @1.22 (a 82% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #134 vs #272 (better ranked); performs +5% above baseline (49% career on the surface); model 69% vs market 82% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 4/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 69%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 31 out of every 100 times Back wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 4 losses in a row; Returning from a long layoff (24d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.