Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-21

I. Almazan Valiente vs G. Lazarov — prediction

Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification
✓ Correct
VALIENTEWIN PROBABILITYLAZAROV
70%
Elo prob.
@1.43
odds · 70% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Valiente🎾Serve 63%📈Form 6/10 · 2✓
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1698 vs 1553 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 117 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.
@1.43
fair odds
−0.3%
expected value
BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes I. Almazan Valiente the favorite with a 70% win probability, against G. Lazarov's 30% — a solid favorite, though Lazarov keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.43; the offered odds are around @1.43 (a 70% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: 1698 vs 1553 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 117 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Lazarov wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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