Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-21

F. Misolic vs S. Gima — prediction

Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification

✗ Missed

MISOLICWIN PROBABILITYGIMA

69%

Elo prob.

@1.16

odds · 86% impl.

⚔H2H 1–1 Misolic🎾Serve 57%📈Form 3/10

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1726 vs 1585 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 293 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.44

fair odds

−19.6%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes F. Misolic the favorite with a 69% win probability, against S. Gima's 31% — a solid favorite, though Gima keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.44; the offered odds are around @1.16 (a 86% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1726 vs 1585 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 293 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 31 out of every 100 times Gima wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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