R. Jodar vs A. Tabilo — prediction
›Ranking: #14 vs #28 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 2-1 in favor
›Model 67% vs market 77% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
The model makes R. Jodar the favorite with a 67% win probability, against A. Tabilo's 33% — a solid favorite, though Tabilo keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.49; the offered odds are around @1.30 (a 77% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #14 vs #28 (better ranked); 2-1 in favor; model 67% vs market 77% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 7/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 67%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 33 out of every 100 times Tabilo wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.