Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-20

F. Misolic vs I. Lopez Morillo — prediction

Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification

✓ Correct

MISOLICWIN PROBABILITYMORILLO

76%

Elo prob.

@1.15

odds · 87% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Misolic🎾Serve 57%📈Form 3/10

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1744 vs 1544 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 292 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.32

fair odds

−12.7%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes F. Misolic the favorite with a 76% win probability, against I. Lopez Morillo's 24% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.32; the offered odds are around @1.15 (a 87% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1744 vs 1544 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 292 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 24 out of every 100 times Morillo wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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