D. Merida Aguilar vs C. Garin — prediction

The model makes D. Merida Aguilar the favorite with a 67% win probability, against C. Garin's 33% — a solid favorite, though Garin keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.50; the offered odds are around @1.41 (a 71% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #41 vs #133 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 67%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 33 out of every 100 times Garin wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.