S. Sierra vs C. Brace — prediction
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #90 vs #249 (better ranked)
›Clay specialist: performs +18% above baseline (64% career on the surface)
›Model 54% vs market 67% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 3/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 15d vs opponent's 1d
!Coming off 5 losses in a row
The model makes S. Sierra the favorite with a 54% win probability, against C. Brace's 46% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.86; the offered odds are around @1.50 (a 67% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #90 vs #249 (better ranked); performs +18% above baseline (64% career on the surface); model 54% vs market 67% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds; 3/10 in recent matches.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 54%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 46 out of every 100 times Brace wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 5 losses in a row. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.