D. Parry vs P. Stearns — prediction
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
High altitude: thin air, faster ball and longer bounce.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #30 vs #60 (better ranked)
›Model 61% vs market 52% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 12d vs opponent's 1d
The model makes D. Parry the favorite with a 61% win probability, against P. Stearns's 39% — a solid favorite, though Stearns keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.64; the offered odds are around @1.93 (a 52% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #30 vs #60 (better ranked); model 61% vs market 52% → the model sees it as more likely than the odds; 8/10 in recent matches; 12d vs opponent's 1d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 61%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 39 out of every 100 times Stearns wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.