C. Liu vs M. Stoiana — prediction
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #96 vs #116 (better ranked)
›Clay specialist: performs +9% above baseline (48% career on the surface)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 5 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 5 matches in the last 2 weeks
The model makes C. Liu the favorite with a 57% win probability, against M. Stoiana's 43% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.75; the offered odds are around @1.76 (a 57% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #96 vs #116 (better ranked); performs +9% above baseline (48% career on the surface); 7/10 in recent matches; 5 wins in a row.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 57%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 43 out of every 100 times Stoiana wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.