S. Sorribes Tormo vs C. Dolehide — prediction
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
High altitude: thin air, faster ball and longer bounce.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #203 vs #248 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 2/10 in recent matches
›More rested: 54d vs opponent's 31d
!Coming off 3 losses in a row
!Returning from a long layoff (54d) — possible rustiness
The model makes S. Sorribes Tormo the favorite with a 54% win probability, against C. Dolehide's 46% — a tight match, without a wide margin. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.86; the offered odds are around @2.05 (a 49% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.
Several factors explain the number: #203 vs #248 (better ranked); 2/10 in recent matches; 54d vs opponent's 31d.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 54%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 46 out of every 100 times Dolehide wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Coming off 3 losses in a row; Returning from a long layoff (54d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.