ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-13

M. Houkes vs W. Ahouda — prediction

M25 Rabat 2 (Morocco)

✓ Correct

HOUKESWIN PROBABILITYAHOUDA

77%

Elo prob.

@1.19

odds · 84% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Houkes🎾Serve 66%📈Form 10/10 · 10✓

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1807 vs 1598 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 357 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.30

fair odds

−8.5%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes M. Houkes the favorite with a 77% win probability, against W. Ahouda's 23% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.30; the offered odds are around @1.19 (a 84% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1807 vs 1598 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 357 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 23 out of every 100 times Ahouda wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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