Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-13

I. Simakin vs A. Weber — prediction

Phan Thiet 3 (Vietnam) - Qualification

✓ Correct

SIMAKINWIN PROBABILITYWEBER

70%

Elo prob.

@1.22

odds · 82% impl.

⚔H2H 1–0 Simakin🎾Serve 66%📈Form 10/10 · 10✓

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1851 vs 1700 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 270 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.42

fair odds

−14.1%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes I. Simakin the favorite with a 70% win probability, against A. Weber's 30% — a solid favorite, though Weber keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.42; the offered odds are around @1.22 (a 82% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1851 vs 1700 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 270 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Weber wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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