ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-11

W. Ahouda vs I. Miletich — prediction

M25 Rabat 2 (Morocco)

✓ Correct

AHOUDAWIN PROBABILITYMILETICH

65%

Elo prob.

@1.65

odds · 61% impl.

⏱Rest 1d vs 3d📈Form 9/10 · 7✓

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1581 vs 1475 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 51 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.54

fair odds

+7.0%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes W. Ahouda the favorite with a 65% win probability, against I. Miletich's 35% — a solid favorite, though Miletich keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.54; the offered odds are around @1.65 (a 61% implied), slightly above the market, so the model is a touch more optimistic.

Several factors explain the number: 1581 vs 1475 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 51 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 35 out of every 100 times Miletich wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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