ITF · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-10
● CLAY
R. Nijboer vs I. Parisca — prediction
M25 Gijon
✓ Correct
NIJBOERWIN PROBABILITYPARISCA
62%
Elo prob.
@1.43
odds · 70% impl.
⚔H2H 2–0 Nijboer🎾Serve 63%📈Form 8/10 · 7✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Clay
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Temperature◇
23°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
45%
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Wind◇
15 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
›Tour Elo: 1716 vs 1634 — favorite by rating
›ITF tier · 366 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
WATCH FOR
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.