C. Alcaraz vs B. Shelton — prediction
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #3 vs #9 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 7/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 2-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 78% career on the surface
›More rested: 148d vs opponent's 23d
›Model 72% vs market 78% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
!Returning from a long layoff (148d) — possible rustiness
The model makes C. Alcaraz the favorite with a 72% win probability, against B. Shelton's 28% — a solid favorite, though Shelton keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.39; the offered odds are around @1.28 (a 78% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.
Several factors explain the number: #3 vs #9 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 2-0 in favor; 78% career on the surface.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 72%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 28 out of every 100 times Shelton wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. Watch out for: Returning from a long layoff (148d) — possible rustiness. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.