Challenger · ELO ESTIMATE · 2026-09-07
● CLAY
M. Dodig vs F. Agamenone — prediction
Genova
DODIGWIN PROBABILITYAGAMENONE
68%
Elo prob.
@1.28
odds · 78% impl.
⚔H2H 0–1 Dodig⏱Rest 1d vs 7d🎾Serve 67%📈Form 8/10 · 5✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Clay
Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.
Temperature◇
30°C
Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.
Humidity◇
62%
Humid air: the ball loses some speed.
Wind◇
7 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
›Tour Elo: 1837 vs 1705 — favorite by rating
›Challenger tier · 234 matches in the favorite's track record
›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets
WATCH FOR
!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.
Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.