MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-09-07
● HARD
E. Rybakina vs N. Osaka — prediction
RYBAKINAWIN PROBABILITYOSAKA
72%
model prob.
@1.72
odds · 58% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Rybakina⏱Rest 1d vs 2d◐Hard 80%🎾Serve 64%📈Form 9/10 · 6✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
26°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
35%
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Wind◇
15 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #2 vs #13 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 73% career on the surface
›Model 72% vs market 58% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
›Recent form: 9/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 6 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.