MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-09-07
● HARD
C. Gauff vs I. Jovic — prediction
GAUFFWIN PROBABILITYJOVIC
79%
model prob.
@1.31
odds · 76% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Gauff◐Hard 75%🎾Serve 63%📈Form 9/10 · 9✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
26°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
35%
Dry air: the ball travels normally.
Wind◇
15 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #4 vs #14 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 71% career on the surface
›Recent form: 9/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 9 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.