A. Holmgren vs V. Ursu — prediction

Istanbul

HOLMGRENWIN PROBABILITYURSU

66%

Elo prob.

@1.19

odds · 84% impl.

⏱Rest 6d vs 12d🎾Serve 65%📈Form 4/10 · 4✗

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Temperature◇

26°C

Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.

Humidity◇

45%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

22 km/h

Some wind: makes baseline control harder.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1742 vs 1623 — favorite by rating

›Challenger tier · 292 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.51

fair odds

−21.0%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes A. Holmgren the favorite with a 66% win probability, against V. Ursu's 34% — a solid favorite, though Ursu keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.51; the offered odds are around @1.19 (a 84% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1742 vs 1623 — favorite by rating; challenger tier · 292 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 34 out of every 100 times Ursu wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

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The value read of A. Holmgren vs V. Ursu — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

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