MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-09-03
● HARD
M. Keys vs A. Bondar — prediction
KEYSWIN PROBABILITYBONDAR
74%
model prob.
@1.10
odds · 91% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Keys◐Hard 69%🎾Serve 65%📈Form 6/10
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
27°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
77%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
12 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #24 vs #73 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 62% career on the surface
›Model 74% vs market 91% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Match-sharp: 3 matches in the last 2 weeks
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.