MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-09-03
● HARD
C. Gauff vs P. Badosa — prediction
Result pending
GAUFFWIN PROBABILITYBADOSA
84%
model prob.
@1.12
odds · 89% impl.
⚔H2H 3–5 Gauff⏱Rest 2d vs 1d◐Hard 75%🎾Serve 63%📈Form 9/10 · 7✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
27°C
Warm: the ball flies a little more and fitness counts.
Humidity◇
77%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
12 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #4 vs #87 (better ranked)
›Head-to-head: 3-5 against
›Solid on Hard: 71% career on the surface
›Model 84% vs market 89% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
›Recent form: 9/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 7 wins in a row
›Match-sharp: 4 matches in the last 2 weeks
WATCH FOR
!Unfavorable head-to-head record (3-5)
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.