A. Nagel vs D. Morais — prediction

M25 Casablanca (Morocco)

Result pending

NAGELWIN PROBABILITYMORAIS

76%

Elo prob.

@1.05

odds · 95% impl.

📈Form 7/10 · 6✓

CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context

Surface◆

Clay

Slow court, high bounce: longer points, rewards whoever holds up from the baseline.

Temperature◇

32°C

Strong heat: warm air speeds the ball up and physical wear tells in long matches.

Humidity◇

48%

Dry air: the ball travels normally.

Wind◇

10 km/h

Light wind: no noticeable effect.

Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.

WHAT THE ESTIMATE IS BASED ON

›Tour Elo: 1670 vs 1467 — favorite by rating

›ITF tier · 158 matches in the favorite's track record

›Elo estimate (not the ATP factor model): these are softer, less-analyzed markets

WATCH FOR

!Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.

Tour Elo estimate (Challenger/ITF markets, not covered by the factor model). The value edge here is unproven live — it's a reference, not a recommendation. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

@1.31

fair odds

−19.8%

expected value

BREAKDOWN · ELO ESTIMATE

The model makes A. Nagel the favorite with a 76% win probability, against D. Morais's 24% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.31; the offered odds are around @1.05 (a 95% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: 1670 vs 1467 — favorite by rating; itf tier · 158 matches in the favorite's track record; these are softer, less-analyzed markets.

Read it with caution. This number does NOT come from the ATP factor model, but from the tour's real Elo: it ranks who is the favorite well, but it is a coarser estimate. Being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 24 out of every 100 times Morais wins. And above all, in Challenger/ITF the value edge is not proven live, so treat it as a reference, not an opportunity. Watch out for: Soft market: the value edge in Challenger/ITF is NOT proven live — treat it as an estimate, not an opportunity.. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.

Analyze today's matches →

🔒

Full analysis & value verdict is Premium

The value read of A. Nagel vs D. Morais — fair odds, expected value, and the factor-by-factor breakdown.

New here? Free account · 3 days of full access