Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Mild: neutral conditions.
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
›Ranking: #53 vs #139 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Solid on Hard: 62% career on the surface
The model makes Stefanos Tsitsipas the favorite with a 70% win probability, against Lloyd Harris's 30% — a solid favorite, though Harris keeps real chances. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.43; the offered odds are around @1.45 (a 69% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.
Several factors explain the number: #53 vs #139 (better ranked); 6/10 in recent matches; 62% career on the surface.
Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 70%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~65% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 30 out of every 100 times Harris wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.