M. Kostyuk vs S. Stephens — prediction

The model makes M. Kostyuk the favorite with a 89% win probability, against S. Stephens's 11% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.12; the offered odds are around @1.11 (a 90% implied), virtually the same as what the market prices in.

Several factors explain the number: #11 vs #209 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 1-0 in favor.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 89%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 11 out of every 100 times Stephens wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.