MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-09-02
● HARD
M. Keys vs A. Bondar — prediction
Result pending
KEYSWIN PROBABILITYBONDAR
75%
model prob.
@1.12
odds · 89% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Keys◐Hard 69%🎾Serve 65%📈Form 8/10 · 2✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
23°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
79%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
9 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #24 vs #73 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 6/10 in recent matches
›Head-to-head: 1-0 in favor
›Solid on Hard: 62% career on the surface
›More rested: 12d vs opponent's 8d
›Model 75% vs market 89% → the model sees it as less likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.