J. Pegula vs S. Kenin — prediction

The model makes J. Pegula the favorite with a 92% win probability, against S. Kenin's 8% — a conviction read: the model sees the match clearly leaning one way. Converted to odds, that probability is worth about @1.09; the offered odds are around @1.05 (a 95% implied), slightly below the market, so the model is a touch more cautious.

Several factors explain the number: #3 vs #110 (better ranked); 7/10 in recent matches; 2-2 even; 72% career on the surface.

Read it with perspective. Our probability is calibrated — when the model says 92%, that outcome happens roughly that percentage of the time, with ~64% out-of-sample accuracy — but being the favorite is not being the winner: roughly 8 out of every 100 times Kenin wins. The model also tends to agree with the market, so the odds already capture almost all the edge: don't take it as a sure value. This is informational analysis, not a betting recommendation. 18+ · play responsibly.