MODEL PREDICTION · 2026-09-02
● HARD
E. Rybakina vs J. Bouzas Maneiro — prediction
Result pending
RYBAKINAWIN PROBABILITYMANEIRO
93%
model prob.
@1.16
odds · 86% impl.
⚔H2H 1–0 Rybakina◐Hard 80%🎾Serve 64%📈Form 9/10 · 8✓
CONDITIONS OF THE MATCH◆ in the model◇ context
Surface◆
Hard
Consistent bounce, medium-fast: neutral conditions, no style favored.
Temperature◇
23°C
Mild: neutral conditions.
Humidity◇
79%
Very humid air: the ball gets heavy and points stretch out.
Wind◇
9 km/h
Light wind: no noticeable effect.
Surface feeds the model (surface specialization is one of its factors). Weather and altitude are context we publish for you — they do NOT move the probability.
OUR MODEL'S REASONING
›Ranking: #2 vs #105 (better ranked)
›Recent form: 8/10 in recent matches
›On a streak: 3 wins in a row
›Solid on Hard: 73% career on the surface
›Model 93% vs market 86% → the model sees it as MORE likely than the odds
Calibrated model probability (~64% out-of-sample accuracy, validated specifically on WTA). Not a guarantee: the model ≈ the market on average, so the odds already capture almost all the edge. 18+ · gamble responsibly.